Condominium Price Index: The ‘official’ picture

EXCLUSIVE: This trend line for the Bank of Thailand’s Condominium Price Index is one you might not agree with, but it’s about official as you can get.

At a time when many researchers are proclaiming healthy year-on-year price growth, the facts for the whole of the kingdom’s condo sector from the Bank of Thailand seem somewhat different.

Certainly, there is month-on-month growth identified by this Index, but certainly no price growth if you look at the past 12 months.

November’s figure for the Index, which was published earlier this week and has yet to see any mainstream media coverage, showed the Condominium Price Index has barely recovered to were it was this time last year.

Since November 2016, the Condominium Price Index shows a 0.1 percent year-on-year decline, but it’s recovering substantially from where it was just a few months ago.

For its Condominium Price Index, the Bank of Thailand uses the hedonic regression method (rolling window and time dummy), to give a three-month moving average.

Other research from, for example, real estate agencies, focuses either on internal data or on a specific location, such as central Bangkok.

Looking at all Thailand condominium property investments, the picture that’s painted is different, but at least this Index is heading in the right direction.

Just to note, the Index began at 100 in January 2009, so any Thailand condominium investment made back then would produce an average of a 75 percent rise in less than 10 years.